energate Gasmarkt Issue 01|2025

Many of you may have closely followed the news on 1 January to see whether gas was still flowing through Ukraine. As I write this on 21 December, the end of the transit agreement appears likely, yet remains uncertain. But the question of the future of the Ukrainian transit is, of course, the opener for the outlook for 2025. As every year, this issue's Topic of the Month is dedicated to the year in review and the outlook.

Some topics for which I had already reserved space in the annual outlook were ‘clarified’ by the German Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) in the last two weeks before Christmas. The second consultation on the GaBi Gas 2.1, GeLi Gas 3.0, KARLA Gas 2.0 and ZuBio rulings was opened on 13 December. The final FAUNA ruling followed on 17 December, and the second consultations for WasABi and WaKandA were opened on 19 December. At the time of writing, I was still heavily occupied with assessing these developments. Consequently, you will find only a preliminary analysis of WasABi and WaKandA in this edition.

Another topic that kept me on my toes until 21 December was the insolvency of Landwärme. The creditors' meeting was held on 17 December. The phone call with someone who followed it closely began with the words: “Are you sitting down?”. He then went on to report how high the expected bankruptcy rate would be. As much of the reporting on Landwärme is based on purely informal conversations, you will find this - along with the likely rate - in the Market Rumours section. But you, dear readers, can rest assured that I have had enough conversations to make the information reliable.

There are several other topics on which important decisions were taken as late as 19 December, which you can read about in this edition. For instance the abolition of the gas storage neutrality charge at the exit points or the usage of German FSRU.

What will be important in 2025? You will find several anticipated milestones in the annual outlook. I believe that geopolitics during Trump’s second term, along with its impact on gas trading markets, as well as the future direction of German energy and climate policy after the election, will be the overarching themes.