Since the beginning of January, gas traders and analysts have been watching Ukraine gas transit closely (ener|gate Gasmarkt 03/21). In some days in February, the flows through the Ukrainian- Slovakian border point Velke Kapuzany were extremely low. In March, volumes recovered. Since then, they have increased slightly month by month, and have usually been very stable over the course of each month. Nevertheless, they are still well below the 2020 level.
Not only Russian flows are low, supply is tight in general. On the other hand, temperature-related demand and potential demand for the refilling of storage facilities is high. As a consequence, Ukraine transit flows as well as the booking and non-booking of transit capacity repeatedly trigger nervousness among traders and analysts, resulting in roller-coaster prices. The situation between April 23 and 27 was almost absurd.